The Arctic as Strategic Theatre:

U.S.–China Rivalry and the New Geography of Power

北极作为战略舞台：美中竞争与权力地理的新格局

北极已不再只是环保议题的焦点，它正日益成为一个战略舞台。在这里，气候变化、基础设施建设、治理博弈与大国竞争不断交织。这片曾被视为遥远而脆弱的气候空间，如今正同时被环境力量和地缘政治所重塑。

The Arctic is no longer merely a zone of environmental concern.It is becoming a strategic theatre where climate change,infrastructure,governance,and great-power competition increasingly intersect.What was once treated largely as a remote and fragile climatic space is now being reshaped by forces that are environmental and geopolitical at the same time.

目前，北极变暖的速度仍快于全球平均水平。官方监测确认，北极海冰仍处于长期急剧萎缩之中。根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的数据，2025年3月记录到的冬季海冰最大范围为卫星观测时代以来最低水平；此后的官方监测也进一步确认，北极海冰仍在持续大幅下降。

Arctic warming continues to outpace the global average.Official monitoring confirms that Arctic sea ice remains in sharp long-term decline.According to NOAA,in March 2025,the winter maximum recorded was the lowest in the satellite era,and official monitoring confirms that sea ice remains in steep long-term decline since then.

美国航空航天局26日发布公报称，最新研究显示，北极冬季海冰面积连续第二年降至自1979年有卫星观测记录以来的最低水平。图源：美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）

这种环境变化之所以重要，在于它正在改变进入北极的物质条件。一个更温暖的北极，可能会延长季节性通航窗口，改变航运路线的地理格局，并使部分沿海及近海活动比以往更具可行性。近期经同行评审的研究表明，北极的通航能力在本世纪内可能还会继续提升，尤其是在更强破冰能力船舶不断发展的情况下更是如此。一些情景预测甚至认为，到本世纪后期，北方海航道的部分区段可能接近实现全年通航。

This environmental transformation matters because it is altering the material conditions of access.A warmer Arctic can lengthen seasonal navigation windows,affect the geography of shipping routes,and make some coastal and offshore activities more feasible than before.Recent peer-reviewed research suggests that Arctic navigability could continue to expand over the course of the century,especially with the development of more ice-capable vessels.Some scenarios projected near year-round use of parts of the Northern Sea Route later in the century.

但这并不意味着北极会变成一个没有摩擦与冲突的空间。得出这样的结论，不仅错误，而且危险。冰层融化，并不会自动带来开发利用的便利。恶劣天气、不断变化的冰情、薄弱的港口和救援设施、高昂的保险与运营成本、环境脆弱性，以及尚未解决的监管问题——这些因素仍在严重制约着北极的进程。

But this does not mean that the Arctic is becoming frictionless.That would be the wrong conclusion,and a dangerous one.Melting ice does not automatically produce easy exploitation.Severe weather,shifting ice conditions,weak port and rescue infrastructure,high insurance and operating costs,environmental vulnerability,and unresolved regulatory questions continue to impose major constraints in this regard.

换言之，北极确实正变得更容易进入，但并非“轻易可达”。这一区分至关重要，因为恰恰是这种局部的、不均衡的开放，正在加剧战略竞争。该地区并不是以一种平稳、稳定、线性的方式开放，而是在不确定条件下有选择地开放，并由此带来一系列战略后果。

In other words,the Arctic is becoming more accessible,but not simply accessible.That distinction is essential,because it is precisely this partial and uneven opening that is intensifying strategic competition.The region is not opening in a smooth,stable,linear way;it is opening selectively,under uncertainty,and with strategic consequences.

正是在这一不断变化的格局中，美国对中国的关切变得愈发强烈。中国并非北极国家，但多年来一直试图通过科学研究、航运雄心、投资、对基础设施的兴趣以及外交布局，将自身塑造为一个具有正当性的“利益关联方”。中国在2018年发布的《中国的北极政策白皮书》中明确将自己界定为“近北极国家”，并将北极参与同航运、资源利用、科学认知、治理参与以及更宏大的“冰上丝绸之路”构想联系起来。

It is within that changing landscape that U.S.concern over China has grown sharper.China is not an Arctic state,yet it has spent years seeking to establish itself as a legitimate stakeholder through scientific research,shipping ambitions,investment,infrastructure interest,and diplomatic positioning.In its 2018 white paper,Beijing explicitly framed itself as a“near-Arctic state”and linked Arctic engagement to shipping,resource use,scientific knowledge,governance participation,and the broader idea of a Polar Silk Road.

目前，中国已经具备了在90%以上的南极冰盖和全部北极冰盖开展钻探研究的能力。图源：新华社

从华盛顿的视角看，这早已不仅是科学兴趣或商业多元化的议题。美国越来越倾向于将其解读为一种更广泛的模式：经济、技术和科研活动，同样可能为更长期的地缘政治影响力奠定基础。美国国防部发布的《2024年北极战略》明确将北极置于战略竞争的背景之下，指出俄罗斯的军事态势与中国日益增长的兴趣，是这一演变态势的核心特征。此后，美国国防高层的公开表态进一步强化了这样一个判断——中国在扩大与俄罗斯的北极合作的同时，也希望自身被承认为一个“北极力量”。

From Washington’s perspective,this is no longer viewed simply as a matter of scientific curiosity or commercial diversification.It is increasingly interpreted as part of a broader pattern in which economic,technological,and research activities may also create the foundations for longer-term geopolitical influence.The US Defense Department Arctic Strategy in 2024,explicitly places the region within the context of strategic competition,identifying both Russia’s military posture and China’s growing interest as central features of the evolving environment.Senior U.S.defense messaging since then has reinforced the point that China is trying to be recognized as an Arctic power while expanding cooperation with Russia in the region.

这也正是为何北极已被纳入更广泛的中美竞争逻辑之中。问题不仅在于中国是否可能直接获得资源或航道准入，更在于中国能否逐步嵌入那些将长期塑造该地区的基础设施、物流体系、科研网络、通信体系、数据系统以及治理安排之中。

That is why the Arctic has entered the wider logic of U.S.–China rivalry.The question is not only whether China might gain direct access to resources or routes,but whether China can gradually embed itself in the infrastructure,logistics,scientific networks,communications,data systems,and governance arrangements that will help shape the region over time.

从这个意义上说，北极折射出美国一种更深层次的担忧：在战略敏感的空间里，影响力的形成往往不是通过剧烈、突出的方式，而是靠渐进累积。问题的关键在于持续性的布局。毕竟，北极之所以重要，不仅因为它今天的状况，更因为气候变化可能会进一步提升它的战略价值。

In that sense,the Arctic reflects a broader American concern:that influence in strategically sensitive spaces may be built incrementally,not dramatically.The issue is less immediate domination than cumulative positioning.The Arctic matters not only because of what it is today,but because climate change may steadily increase its strategic relevance tomorrow.

然而，北极不能仅仅通过中美双边框架来理解。俄罗斯仍然是该地区居于核心地位的领土性和军事性力量。它拥有最长的北极海岸线、广泛的军事基础设施，以及沿北方海航道极具优势的地理位置。即便在乌克兰战争导致地区关系严重破裂之后，莫斯科也并未简单地将北极拱手让给北京。

Yet the Arctic cannot be understood through a purely bilateral U.S.-China frame.Russia remains the central territorial and military power in the region.It possesses the longest Arctic coastline,extensive military infrastructure,and a commanding geographical position along the Northern Sea Route.Even after the rupture produced by the war in Ukraine,Moscow has not simply yielded the Arctic to Beijing.

相反，俄罗斯与中国是在有选择地走近，尤其在航运、能源和投资等领域。但与此同时，这一关系始终带有明显的不对称性和谨慎色彩。一方面，制裁压力、与西方的共同对立以及彼此需求的互补，使这一伙伴关系不断得到强化；另一方面，其中也潜藏着内在的张力：中国倾向于寻求更广泛的商业准入，而俄罗斯则决意维持对北方海航道及周边北极空间的主权控制。随着时间推移，这种不对称性可能让中国陷入一种微妙的境地——中国的重要性足以让俄罗斯离不开，却又不足以拥有塑造规则的影响力；中国在北极已经实际“入场”，但在制度层面仍被限制为观察员身份。

Rather,Russia and China have moved closer selectively,especially in shipping,energy,and investment,while maintaining a relationship marked by asymmetry and caution.The partnership is partly strengthened by sanctions,shared rivalry with the West,and complementary needs,but it also contains an underlying tension between China’s preference for broader commercial access and Russia’s determination to preserve sovereign control over the Northern Sea Route and the surrounding Arctic space.Over time,this asymmetry could place China in a delicate position:important enough to be needed,but not influential enough to shape the rules;present in the region,but still confined institutionally to observer status within Arctic governance.

就目前而言，俄罗斯向中国提供的是地理条件、进入通道以及军事上的“分量”；作为交换，中国带来的是资本、技术和商业辐射能力。在华盛顿看来，这种不断演进的趋近之所以令人担忧，是因为它可能在这一战略重要性日益上升的地区，逐步凝聚成一股对冲西方影响力的力量。

ThroughRussia,for now,China is being provided with geography,access,and military weight and in return China brings capital,technology,and commercial reach.For Washington,this evolving convergence is worrying not because it amounts to a formal alliance,but because it can gradually consolidate a counterweight to Western influence in a region of rising strategic importance.

这些焦虑又因更广泛的地缘政治背景而进一步加深。乌克兰战争严重改变了北极的政治环境，因为它动摇了北极理事会赖以运作的合作基础。自2022年俄乌冲突爆发以来，这一制度框架已遭到严重削弱。人们开始质疑：它是否还能以任何有意义的方式恢复？

These anxieties are reinforced by the wider geopolitical context.The war in Ukraine has profoundly altered the Arctic political environment by undermining the cooperative foundations on which the Arctic Council once depended.Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022,that institutional framework has been severely weakened,raising persistent questions about whether it can be revived in any meaningful form.

与此同时，这场冲突也使北约的注意力重新转向领土防御、北方威慑、后勤保障以及关键基础设施保护。芬兰和瑞典加入北约，进一步重塑了北方高纬地区的战略版图，使得北极与次北极地区在联盟规划中的地位比以往更加突出。

At the same time,the conflict has redirected NATO’s attention toward territorial defense,northern deterrence,logistics,and the protection of critical infrastructure.It has also reshaped the strategic map of the High North by bringing Finland and Sweden into NATO,thereby making the Arctic and sub-Arctic more central to alliance planning than before.

这种转变也体现在美国国防部《2024年北极战略》中。该战略将俄乌冲突、芬兰和瑞典加入北约，以及中俄合作不断加深，列为推动该地区地缘政治变化的几大主要因素。北约自身的公开表述如今已将联盟所处的安全环境描述为冷战结束以来最危险的时期。与此同时，美国高级军事指挥官也指出，俄罗斯在北极不断扩张的军事态势——包括机场设施和北方舰队活动——正日益对大西洋地区以及通往北美的极地通道构成挑战。

This shift is reflected in the 2024 U.S.Department of Defense Arctic Strategy,which identifies Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO,and growing China–Russia collaboration as major drivers of geopolitical change in the region.NATO’s own public language now describes the alliance as operating in its most dangerous security environment since the Cold War,while senior U.S.commanders have pointed to Russia’s expanding Arctic posture—including airfields and Northern Fleet activity—as a growing challenge to the Atlantic and the polar approaches to North America.

在大国竞争再度升温、联盟加快调整、高北地区战略重心发生转移的背景下，加拿大在北极的作用远比公共讨论通常所承认的更为重要。长期以来，加拿大在舆论中往往被视为次要角色，但近年来，它已更加明显地巩固自身在北极的姿态——包括强化监视能力、推进国防现代化、开展基础设施规划以及加强主权论述。渥太华正在推进的“北极超视距雷达”项目，是其更广泛的北美防空司令部（NORAD）现代化的一部分，旨在扩大对北方方向的预警与威胁追踪能力。加拿大官方也明确将该项目界定为对北极安全与主权的贡献。

Against this backdrop of renewed great power rivalary,alliance adaptation,and strategic reorientation in the High North,Canada’s role in the Arctic becomes far more signifcant than public debate often acknowledges.Too often treated as a secondary actor in public debate,Canada has in recent years moved more visibly to reinforce its Arctic posture through surveillance,defense modernization,infrastructure planning,and a stronger sovereignty discourse.Ottawa’s Arctic Over-the-Horizon Radar project,part of its broader NORAD modernization effort,is intended to expand early warning and threat tracking across the northern approaches.The project is explicitly framed by Canadian authorities as a contribution to Arctic security and sovereignty.

这绝非一次细微调整。它反映出加拿大更深层次的认识：北极不仅是一条商业通道，更是一个关乎领土控制、大陆防御、原住民伙伴关系以及治理能力的现实问题。随着北极准入在不均衡状态下持续扩大，渥太华越来越担心，包括中国在内的外部力量可能通过科学研究、投资、基础设施或战略伙伴关系，进一步加深在该地区的立足点。因此，加拿大不想只做旁观者，而是正试图成为规则塑造者。

This is not a minor adjustment.It reflects a deeper recognition in Canada that an opening Arctic is not simply a future commercial corridor,but an immediate question of territorial control,continental defense,indigenous partnership,and governance capacity.As Arctic access expands unevenly,Ottawa is increasingly concerned that outside powers,including China,may seek to deepen their regional foothold through science,investment,infrastructure,or strategic partnerships.Canada is therefore,not merely watching the region change.It is trying to shape the terms under which that change occurs.

一家由因纽特人拥有的新型国防公司计划将其北极专业知识与先进的军事技术相结合，以支持加拿大的北部安全行动。Source：Canadian Armed Forces

因此，核心悖论正在于此：气候变化让北极变得更易进入，却并未让它完全可进入。也正是这种不完全的可进入性，使北极变得更具争夺性。一个部分开放的地区，会在规则、基础设施和力量平衡尚未定型之前，激励各方提前展开战略布局。完全封闭的空间会抑制竞争；完全开放且治理完善的空间则可能使局势趋于稳定。然而，一个仅部分可及、治理薄弱且环境脆弱的地区，反而更容易引发竞争。

The central paradox,then,is this:climate change is making the Arctic more accessible without making it fully accessible.That is precisely why it is becoming more contested.A region that is partially opening creates incentives for early strategic positioning before rules,infrastructure,and balances of power fully settle.A fully closed space deters competition;a fully open and well-regulated one may stabilize it.But a partially accessible,weakly governed,environmentally fragile region invites rivalry.

在美国的防务思维中，北极与本土安全、预警、导弹防御、联盟信誉以及海上通道准入直接相关。在这一背景下，格陵兰重新获得了突出的战略地位，因为皮图菲克太空基地（Pituffik Space Base）等基础设施，构成了美国监视北方与维持威慑体系的重要支点。随着北极变得更加可通航、也更具争夺性，美国的关切正从传统军事威胁，扩展到那些更为隐性的影响力工具：港口、物流、科研、卫星系统、海底测绘、数字连通性，以及与俄罗斯的长期伙伴关系。因而，在北京看来可能只是商业或科研相关性的事务，在华盛顿眼中却可能被视为一种战略杠杆的构建。

In U.S.defence thinking,the Arctic is tied directly to homeland security,early warning,missile defence,alliance credibility,and maritime access.Greenland has acquired renewed prominence in this context not only because of its location,but because infrastructure such as Pituffik Space Base anchors the northern architecture of surveillance and deterrence.As the Arctic becomes more navigable and more contested,U.S.concern is expanding from classic military threats to the quieter instruments of influence:ports,logistics,research,satellite systems,undersea mapping,digital connectivity,and long-term partnership with Russia.What appears from Beijing as commercial or scientific relevance can therefore appear from Washington as the slow construction of strategic leverage.

在这一背景下，头号危险因素或许不是军事对抗，而有可能是战略互疑——而该地区的环境脆弱性，已经超过了现有治理能力所能应对的范围。北极已不再只是全球性失序的一种警示信号。它正成为一个试验场，用以检验气候转型究竟能否通过克制、制度与合作加以管理，抑或会进一步加深如今已深刻塑造国际体系的那种竞争性秩序建构。

In this context,the danger lies less in an imminent military confrontation than in the steady accumulation of strategic mistrust across a region whose environmental vulnerability is already outpacing governance capacity.The Arctic is no longer only a warning sign of planetary disruption.It is becoming a test case of whether climate transformation will be managed through restraint,institutions,and cooperation-or whether it will deepen the competitive order-building that now marks so much of the international system.

因此，北极正在形成的“新地理”并不只是物理意义上的，也是政治意义上的。随着冰层退却，距离正在被重新定义，准入条件正在被重新计算，战略想象也在被重新绘制。北极已不再处于世界政治的边缘。它正越来越靠近其中心——并不是因为北极不再脆弱，而是因为这种脆弱性如今已与权力问题密不可分。

Accordingly,the Arctic’s new geography is not only physical.It is political.As ice retreats,distance is being redefined,access recalculated,and strategic imagination redrawn.The region is no longer at the margins of world politics.It is moving closer to the center,not because the Arctic has ceased to be fragile,but because its fragility is now inseparable from power.

归根结底，这正是北极之所以如此重要的原因。它不仅是气候变化的晴雨表，也是世界秩序的一面镜子。而它如今越来越清晰映照出的，是这样一种体系：环境变化与地缘政治竞争已不再是两条彼此平行的发展线索，而正在成为同一个故事的组成部分。

This,ultimately,is why the Arctic matters so much.It is not only a barometer of climate change.It is also a mirror of world order.And what it increasingly reflects is a system in which environmental transformation and geopolitical rivalry are no longer parallel developments.They are becoming part of the same story.

北极不应再仅仅被视为遥远的北方边疆，也不应只被看作中美竞争的一个地区性舞台。它正成为气候变化如何重绘权力地理的一种早期例证。随着冰层退却，问题已不再只是环境损失本身，而是一个新的战略空间正在浮现；在这一空间中，准入、存在、基础设施与影响力，都在脆弱性与不确定性的条件下被重新计算。

The Arctic should no longer be viewed simply as a remote northern frontier,nor only as a regional theatre of U.S.–China rivalry.It is becoming something more consequential:an early example of how climate change can redraw the geography of power.As ice retreats,the issue is no longer merely environmental loss.It is the emergence of a new strategic space in which access,presence,infrastructure,and influence are being recalculated under conditions of fragility and uncertainty.

这正是为什么北极的重要性超出了北极本身。它预示着一种更广泛的地缘政治未来：环境扰动将日益重塑权力投射与竞争所依托的空间。从这个意义上说，北极所面临的风险，不仅在于它自身会受到竞争的影响，更在于它可能成为一种范本，预示竞争将如何在一个被气候变化重塑的世界中演变。

That is why the Arctic matters beyond the Arctic itself.It offers a preview of a wider geopolitical future in which environmental disruption will increasingly reshape the spaces through which power is projected and contested.In that sense,the region is not simply at risk from rivalry;it is at risk of becoming a model for how rivalry evolves in a climate-altered world.

所以，我们真正的挑战在于，防止竞争成为北极治理的唯一逻辑。如果缺少有效的规则、有韧性的制度，以及各方对克制的承诺，那北极最终只会证明一件事：我们连自己所在的这个星球都治理不好。

The challenge,therefore,is not to imagine that competition can be removed from the Arctic.It is to prevent competition from becoming the only logic through which the region is governed.Without stronger rules,greater institutional resilience,and a renewed commitment to restraint,the Arctic may come to symbolize not only the failure to protect a fragile environment,but the failure to govern a changing planet.

最后，我们不应再将北极视为一片冻结的边缘地带，而应把它看作新兴地缘政治的实验室。它正逐渐成为一个“门槛地带”——旧有的全球格局在这里让位于新的秩序。北极依然高度脆弱，但战略地位正在上升。冰层融化不仅露出了更多土地，更改变了这些土地的战略意义。其结果是，北极正成为一个环境不稳定性与地缘政治雄心同时增强的地区。

The Arctic should be seen less as a frozen margin and more as a laboratory of emerging geopolitics.It is increasingly a threshold region:a space where one global era is giving way to another.It remains environmentally fragile,yet it is also acquiring new strategic weight.What makes the region significant is not only the presence of U.S.–China rivalry,but the fact that climate change is reshaping the material conditions under which rivalry unfolds.Melting ice is not just exposing territory;it is altering the strategic meaning of territory itself.The result is a region where environmental instability and geopolitical ambition now evolve together."